The crisis in the Ukraine and Crimea is the result of drawing arbitrary boundaries on maps by victors of war. In the aftermath of World War I Churchill as the colonial secretary of the British empire convened with his minions in the Hotel Semiramis and drew lines over Arab lands creating countries where none existed. Conflicts and battles are still being fought over those artificial boundaries. After World War II, it was Stalin's turn to draw arbitrary lines all over eastern Europe some times creating countries where none existed. The current Ukraine, the progenitor of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic is itself an artificial consolidation of lands that previously were part of the Austro-Hungarian empire, Poland and the Russian empire itself. The name Ukraine itself means the "borderlands". Ukraine is the borderland of the eastern slavic nations of yore. Russia and the "Rus" (after whom Russia is named) themselves trace their origins to the Kievan Rus and the Rurik dynasty of the Varangians. Ukraine and Kiev are therefore very special to the history and culture of Russia.
In the erstwhile USSR, Ukraine was the bread basket of the union and the second most important republic after Russia itself. So important that Premier Kruschev in another moment of folly (one of many) gifted Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR which later became Ukraine. Crimea was a very strategic peninsula to the Russians giving them warm water access to the Black Sea and Mediterranean as well as guarding their southern flanks, hence the special treaties with the later independent Ukraine. The Ukrainian SSR and the later Ukraine nation are neatly split by the river Dnieper. The regions to the west are majority Ukrainian with sizable Russian minorities. Many Ukrainians in those western regions collaborated with Hitler's German forces during World War II against the Soviet Union. Many were also complicit in the mass murder of Ukrainian jews, and served in special legions of the Nazi SS. The eastern regions of Ukraine are majority Russian (including Crimea) and much of this area belonged to Russia for centuries.
US and NATO overtures to Ukraine and attempts to draw it into the EU have therefore been viewed with great suspicion in Moscow. As most of the former Warsaw Pact satellites slipped into the EU and NATO, the same efforts in Ukraine set alarm bells ringing in Russia. In their view, the Russians see EU and NATO encroachment into Ukraine as an existential threat. Imagine the reaction in Washington DC if Russian troops and missiles were to be placed in a neighboring country. Oh ,wait isnt that what happened in Cuba in 1963? The EU and the US have been too insensitive or not sensitive enough to Russia's interests in their efforts to rope Ukraine into their fold. The Russia of today is not the former Soviet Union but it is still a very powerful country with a large army and nuclear weapons not to mention being the provider of energy to western Europe. The EU and the west therefore have to shoulder some of the blame for the current situation.
The annexation of Crimea could be perceived in one way as the reversal of Kruschev's follly in 1954. However, where does it stop? Are the eastern Russian majority provinces next on Putin's list? What can be done?
During the heights of the cold war, the Soviet Union had 184 divisions (1.84 million men) plus the armies of its satellites threatening the existence of western Europe. It is conceivable that the Soviet Armies flooding into Germany would have not stopped until they reached the English channel and all Europe lay at their feet. To counter this, the US maintained a substantial forward presence based in Europe. REFORGER (reinforcements for Germany) was an annual NATO exercise where the flow of US forces into Europe to mate up with pre-positioned arms and supplies was rehearsed every year.
Russia today is a much diminished version of that cold war Soviet might. The US presence in Europe is drastically reduced. After having fought two long wars the American people and the military are exhausted. The NATO allies long having enjoyed the protection of the US military have spent much of their efforts and money in building socialist paradises where their people live a life of hedonism. They have little stomach to fight any wars. The former Soviet satellites of Poland, the Baltic states, Hungary and Romania quake at what seems like a resurgence of the Soviet empire.
So what are the alternatives?
First, the US must make a strong statement to discourage Putin from any further military moves or land grabs. The US and NATO should move combat aircraft and air defense systems into western Ukraine, and Poland while beefing up the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean. It should be made clear that any invasion of Eastern Ukraine will be severely damaging to Russian forces and Russia's prestige.
Second, agree that Ukraine will be a buffer between east and west. Economic ties and trade are fine but there will be no more moves for EU or NATO admission.
Third, respect the results of the Crimea referendum and allow Crimea to return to Russia.
Fourth, clearly define a set of de-escalation measures so everyone can stand down. Russia will stand by its guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Fifth and finally, get NATO allies off their butts and get them to invest more in their military rather than rely on US largesse which is becoming scarce. The US can strengthen western Europe's energy independence by beginning to ship more gas and oil from its newfound oil wealth.
In the erstwhile USSR, Ukraine was the bread basket of the union and the second most important republic after Russia itself. So important that Premier Kruschev in another moment of folly (one of many) gifted Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR which later became Ukraine. Crimea was a very strategic peninsula to the Russians giving them warm water access to the Black Sea and Mediterranean as well as guarding their southern flanks, hence the special treaties with the later independent Ukraine. The Ukrainian SSR and the later Ukraine nation are neatly split by the river Dnieper. The regions to the west are majority Ukrainian with sizable Russian minorities. Many Ukrainians in those western regions collaborated with Hitler's German forces during World War II against the Soviet Union. Many were also complicit in the mass murder of Ukrainian jews, and served in special legions of the Nazi SS. The eastern regions of Ukraine are majority Russian (including Crimea) and much of this area belonged to Russia for centuries.
US and NATO overtures to Ukraine and attempts to draw it into the EU have therefore been viewed with great suspicion in Moscow. As most of the former Warsaw Pact satellites slipped into the EU and NATO, the same efforts in Ukraine set alarm bells ringing in Russia. In their view, the Russians see EU and NATO encroachment into Ukraine as an existential threat. Imagine the reaction in Washington DC if Russian troops and missiles were to be placed in a neighboring country. Oh ,wait isnt that what happened in Cuba in 1963? The EU and the US have been too insensitive or not sensitive enough to Russia's interests in their efforts to rope Ukraine into their fold. The Russia of today is not the former Soviet Union but it is still a very powerful country with a large army and nuclear weapons not to mention being the provider of energy to western Europe. The EU and the west therefore have to shoulder some of the blame for the current situation.
The annexation of Crimea could be perceived in one way as the reversal of Kruschev's follly in 1954. However, where does it stop? Are the eastern Russian majority provinces next on Putin's list? What can be done?
During the heights of the cold war, the Soviet Union had 184 divisions (1.84 million men) plus the armies of its satellites threatening the existence of western Europe. It is conceivable that the Soviet Armies flooding into Germany would have not stopped until they reached the English channel and all Europe lay at their feet. To counter this, the US maintained a substantial forward presence based in Europe. REFORGER (reinforcements for Germany) was an annual NATO exercise where the flow of US forces into Europe to mate up with pre-positioned arms and supplies was rehearsed every year.
Russia today is a much diminished version of that cold war Soviet might. The US presence in Europe is drastically reduced. After having fought two long wars the American people and the military are exhausted. The NATO allies long having enjoyed the protection of the US military have spent much of their efforts and money in building socialist paradises where their people live a life of hedonism. They have little stomach to fight any wars. The former Soviet satellites of Poland, the Baltic states, Hungary and Romania quake at what seems like a resurgence of the Soviet empire.
So what are the alternatives?
First, the US must make a strong statement to discourage Putin from any further military moves or land grabs. The US and NATO should move combat aircraft and air defense systems into western Ukraine, and Poland while beefing up the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean. It should be made clear that any invasion of Eastern Ukraine will be severely damaging to Russian forces and Russia's prestige.
Second, agree that Ukraine will be a buffer between east and west. Economic ties and trade are fine but there will be no more moves for EU or NATO admission.
Third, respect the results of the Crimea referendum and allow Crimea to return to Russia.
Fourth, clearly define a set of de-escalation measures so everyone can stand down. Russia will stand by its guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Fifth and finally, get NATO allies off their butts and get them to invest more in their military rather than rely on US largesse which is becoming scarce. The US can strengthen western Europe's energy independence by beginning to ship more gas and oil from its newfound oil wealth.
