At the peak of it's power during the 19th century Britain's Royal Navy had over 1,000 ships of the line patrolling the world's oceans. In 1898, the British Parliament passed a law that the Royal Navy should be twice the size of the second biggest naval power. Yet, just a few decades hence in the 1920s Britain had consented to the US naval fleet being the same size as the Royal Navy. This was the Washington conference of great powers post world war 1. Some might think that was the beginning of decline for the British empire, however that decline had started much earlier.
Some historians think that British power peaked around 1840 which might surprise most people. The fact is that Britain's empire grew too much and by that time made no economic sense. Controlling, managing and guarding a far flung empire took immense resources and the balance sheet was just too lopsided with costs compared to the gains from owning vast tracts of land and islands in every ocean. Even as successive British Governments expended vast sums of money and resources to build and maintain the empire, the gains and wealth accrued to a small portion of the British population namely it's aristocracy and landed gentry - the ruling classes. The working classes toiled in factories, on farms and serving as cannon fodder for the imperial armies and the navy.
As Britain entered the 20th century, the US, Germany and Japan were fast rising economic and military powers. Britain then embarked on it's Boer wars to quell rebellion and expand it's South African colony. The war was fueled by imperial greed led by the likes of Cecil Rhodes and avarice (vast diamond fields had just been discovered). Apart from numerous atrocities committed in the name of empire (the concentration camp was invented here by the British, not the Nazis) this war sucked in up to half a million troops and cost the empire more than £200 million, the costliest British war prior to world war 1. The war also lead to populist and social policies including national free healthcare, the union movement, housing, pension and vast social programs, all measures that would finally reward and mollify the working classes for their empire. This however had to be borne by a depleting treasury and a balance sheet skewed with cost.
The devastation of World War 1 followed shortly thereafter with more than 1 million casualties for the empire and an entire generation of young men lost on the bloody battlefields of Europe. Old and out of touch generals fought 20th century technology with 19th century tactics while Britain borrowed money from the US and food from it's colonies. The end of the war cemented the position of the US as the next world power economically and militarily.
The second world war was the epitaph of the empire that beggared Britain and reduced it to a second rate power. At the "Big three" power conferences in reality there were just two, the US and Russia. Britain hung in there primarily due to the powerful personality of Winston Churchill. The decline was complete with the breakup of empire (forced in part by the US), deep in debt to the US and British colonies, with a battered nation and dispirited people.
Fast forward six decades hence, the American empire is in decline. Many years from now historians might say that the US peaked late in the 20th century or at the beginning of this one. There seem to be many eerie parallels to the decline of the British empire. Out of control Government spending by the so called small Government Republicans of the Bush II administration sent the country deep into debt when they actually inherited a surplus from the previous Clinton administration. A needless and unjustified war in Iraq has wasted more than a trillion dollars of money (borrowed) with no tangible returns. Avarice and greed on wall street led to financial disaster and what seems like a very long recession. Personal greed and lack of financial discipline have led many Americans to lose their homes and livelihoods while still being deep in hock.
The US military is larger than the next 13 world powers, 11 of these being allies or partners. US forces are based on more than 600 bases in every continent. Some might disagree that history ever repeats itself. As an amateur historian I like to think that history echoes itself. This seems to me like the over extended British empire on which the sun never set. Today the sun always shines on some US base, ship, airplane or multibillion dollar satellite at any given moment. Some might wonder if the Iraq disaster was our Boer war. Personally, I think it was even worse.
Deep in debt, we have some who want to spend money we don't have on grandiose social programs and raise taxes on an already weary populace. Others would reduce taxes but cut no spending sending us deeper into debt. This sounds eerily like early 19th century Britain which had still not woken up to decline.
In 1956, Britain, France and Israel colluded to attack Egypt without informing the US. The stated objective was to secure the Suez canal which President Nasser had just nationalized. President Eisenhower was furious and forced all three nations to stop and pull back. He didn't do this by dispatching a US fleet but just by threatening to call in the huge war debts of the UK and France. It was the last attempt by Britain to act like a great power.
Imagine some time in the near future when US forces intervene to protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion or South Korea from an invasion by China's North Korean proxy. It is not unforeseeable that China might threaten to call in it's huge loans to the US, especially as the Chinese economy becomes more independent of the US.
Almost a couple of millennia earlier, another great empire of the Romans perished to tumultuous applause from the crowds at the Circus Maximus in the Colosseum. As the empire declined successive emperors needed to organize these grand spectacles to keep the populace in check so they didnt revolt. When I read about the grandiose new stadium built by the Dallas Cowboys with its 60-foot television screen, I couldn't but help wonder if it was an eerie modern-day parallel.
The leaders of both parties in the US would be wise to heed the echoes of history and begin to work together for the good of the nation and gracefully manage decline. So is it all doom and gloom? Most certainly not. We are living in a fast globalizing world with shorter cycles of booms and declines.
We just have to learn to manage decline from it's peak and learn to co-exist in a globally interdependent world. How? is fodder for my next article.
