The two most important countries in the Arab world are - 1) Egypt which has the largest (mostly Islamic) population the Arab world along with major institutions of learning such as Al Azhar University and 2) Saudi Arabia, the home of Islam and the country with the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.
Liberty and freedom
Random thoughts, facts and celebrations of the core human values of liberty and freedom
Sunday, March 29, 2015
The tangled web of the middle east
The two most important countries in the Arab world are - 1) Egypt which has the largest (mostly Islamic) population the Arab world along with major institutions of learning such as Al Azhar University and 2) Saudi Arabia, the home of Islam and the country with the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.
Sunday, March 23, 2014
Eastern gambit - Russia and Ukraine
In the erstwhile USSR, Ukraine was the bread basket of the union and the second most important republic after Russia itself. So important that Premier Kruschev in another moment of folly (one of many) gifted Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR which later became Ukraine. Crimea was a very strategic peninsula to the Russians giving them warm water access to the Black Sea and Mediterranean as well as guarding their southern flanks, hence the special treaties with the later independent Ukraine. The Ukrainian SSR and the later Ukraine nation are neatly split by the river Dnieper. The regions to the west are majority Ukrainian with sizable Russian minorities. Many Ukrainians in those western regions collaborated with Hitler's German forces during World War II against the Soviet Union. Many were also complicit in the mass murder of Ukrainian jews, and served in special legions of the Nazi SS. The eastern regions of Ukraine are majority Russian (including Crimea) and much of this area belonged to Russia for centuries.
US and NATO overtures to Ukraine and attempts to draw it into the EU have therefore been viewed with great suspicion in Moscow. As most of the former Warsaw Pact satellites slipped into the EU and NATO, the same efforts in Ukraine set alarm bells ringing in Russia. In their view, the Russians see EU and NATO encroachment into Ukraine as an existential threat. Imagine the reaction in Washington DC if Russian troops and missiles were to be placed in a neighboring country. Oh ,wait isnt that what happened in Cuba in 1963? The EU and the US have been too insensitive or not sensitive enough to Russia's interests in their efforts to rope Ukraine into their fold. The Russia of today is not the former Soviet Union but it is still a very powerful country with a large army and nuclear weapons not to mention being the provider of energy to western Europe. The EU and the west therefore have to shoulder some of the blame for the current situation.
The annexation of Crimea could be perceived in one way as the reversal of Kruschev's follly in 1954. However, where does it stop? Are the eastern Russian majority provinces next on Putin's list? What can be done?
During the heights of the cold war, the Soviet Union had 184 divisions (1.84 million men) plus the armies of its satellites threatening the existence of western Europe. It is conceivable that the Soviet Armies flooding into Germany would have not stopped until they reached the English channel and all Europe lay at their feet. To counter this, the US maintained a substantial forward presence based in Europe. REFORGER (reinforcements for Germany) was an annual NATO exercise where the flow of US forces into Europe to mate up with pre-positioned arms and supplies was rehearsed every year.
Russia today is a much diminished version of that cold war Soviet might. The US presence in Europe is drastically reduced. After having fought two long wars the American people and the military are exhausted. The NATO allies long having enjoyed the protection of the US military have spent much of their efforts and money in building socialist paradises where their people live a life of hedonism. They have little stomach to fight any wars. The former Soviet satellites of Poland, the Baltic states, Hungary and Romania quake at what seems like a resurgence of the Soviet empire.
So what are the alternatives?
First, the US must make a strong statement to discourage Putin from any further military moves or land grabs. The US and NATO should move combat aircraft and air defense systems into western Ukraine, and Poland while beefing up the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean. It should be made clear that any invasion of Eastern Ukraine will be severely damaging to Russian forces and Russia's prestige.
Second, agree that Ukraine will be a buffer between east and west. Economic ties and trade are fine but there will be no more moves for EU or NATO admission.
Third, respect the results of the Crimea referendum and allow Crimea to return to Russia.
Fourth, clearly define a set of de-escalation measures so everyone can stand down. Russia will stand by its guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Fifth and finally, get NATO allies off their butts and get them to invest more in their military rather than rely on US largesse which is becoming scarce. The US can strengthen western Europe's energy independence by beginning to ship more gas and oil from its newfound oil wealth.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Vote for peace
US Presidents can do jack about the price of gasoline at the pump. They can fabricate evidence and drag us into unnecessary wars in Iraq or bomb other countries into the stone age, but they can't do jack about oil. Here's a quick primer.
The dollar is the reserve currency of the world. This means international trade happens in dollars. This is a consequence of the Bretton Woods agreements, a result of the US' major contribution to winning World War 2. So what happens when the US government does not have its house in order and spends more than it earns? The price of gold goes up as evidenced over the last few years.
Oil is traded in dollars. When the dollar weakens due to fiscal indiscipline, the price of oil rises. When there is speculation about a strike on Iran or shutting the straits of Hormuz, the price of oil rises as speculators envision an uncertain future.
If your Government spent as much or less than it took in, if your leaders didn't threaten to bomb other countries into submission, if there was certainty in the economy and every day life - then oil would trade at $70 a barrel rather than $120, gold would be cheaper and jobs would be growing.
When you vote in November, vote for peace and sensibility, not bellicosity or rhetoric.